Riassunto analitico
The Covid-19 pandemic is having an impact on all around the world in several fields. A rare disaster led to a large-scale recession. No country or group of countries can escape this crisis without harm. Countries have gradually implemented policies on social distancing, limitation of movement, and isolation to prevent the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. These policies made social life and economic activities seem to be the area that was damaged the most. In recent years, when the global value chains became the main manufacturing trend, the interdependence of countries in production has created the risk of global supply chains. Indeed, a disruption in one country in global value chains can affect production speed because of the lack of input materials. Vietnam is a developing country with a high proportion of export and import value and involves global value chains of many fields such as machinery, technology, textiles, and garment. Therefore, the disruption of global value chains induced by the Covid-19 epidemic will influence Vietnam's bilateral trade operations. This is the reason why it is important to evaluate the impact of Covid-19 on global value chains from a Vietnam viewpoint.
The result of bilateral trade between Vietnam and other partner countries will provide the basic scenario for global value chains in Vietnam during Covid-19 pandemic. Hence, this study used secondary data of 46 countries in 48 quarters from 2009 to 2020 to empirically assess the relationships between international trade of Vietnam with Covid-19 pandemic. The gravity model examined two dependent variables export and import, and 27 independent variables. The result shows that Covid-19 epidemic has a negative effect on both values of export and import of Vietnam during the observed time. Moreover, this study also provides the relationship of bilateral trade of Vietnam with other variables such as GDP per capita, population, geography variables, cultural variables, and political variables.
|
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic is having an impact on all around the world in several fields. A rare disaster led to a large-scale recession. No country or group of countries can escape this crisis without harm. Countries have gradually implemented policies on social distancing, limitation of movement, and isolation to prevent the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. These policies made social life and economic activities seem to be the area that was damaged the most. In recent years, when the global value chains became the main manufacturing trend, the interdependence of countries in production has created the risk of global supply chains. Indeed, a disruption in one country in global value chains can affect production speed because of the lack of input materials. Vietnam is a developing country with a high proportion of export and import value and involves global value chains of many fields such as machinery, technology, textiles, and garment. Therefore, the disruption of global value chains induced by the Covid-19 epidemic will influence Vietnam's bilateral trade operations. This is the reason why it is important to evaluate the impact of Covid-19 on global value chains from a Vietnam viewpoint.
The result of bilateral trade between Vietnam and other partner countries will provide the basic scenario for global value chains in Vietnam during Covid-19 pandemic. Hence, this study used secondary data of 46 countries in 48 quarters from 2009 to 2020 to empirically assess the relationships between international trade of Vietnam with Covid-19 pandemic. The gravity model examined two dependent variables export and import, and 27 independent variables. The result shows that Covid-19 epidemic has a negative effect on both values of export and import of Vietnam during the observed time. Moreover, this study also provides the relationship of bilateral trade of Vietnam with other variables such as GDP per capita, population, geography variables, cultural variables, and political variables.
|
