Riassunto analitico
Since China’s economic reform and liberalization in 1979, US- China trade relationship has significantly improved. In terms of monetary value and volume, commerce between US and China is enormous. For instance, American businesses look to China for investment possibilities for their manufacturing facilities, and logistical growth in China makes China a global technological hub. Therefore, US worries about China’s trade policy, such as government-imposed regulations that obstruct trade and investment prospects, even after building such a trading partnership. US also accuses China of violating intellectual property rights, having a patchy record of adhering to WTO rules, and limiting FDI and processes for influencing the value of its currency, the yuan. Since taking office in 2017, President Donald J. Trump vowed to advance a free and fair-trade policy. Therefore, his administration took decisive action against Chinese intellectual property rights regulations that potentially harmed US interests and attempted to lower the bilateral trade deficit. After US placed a tariff on Chinese exports in 2018, the trade conflict erupted, harming not only US but also China; However, other articles suggested that the trade war had a beneficial impact on the rest of the world's commerce. According to Fajgelbaum et al. (2021), the trade war increased world commerce by 3% while opening up new trade possibilities for other countries.
Vietnam is a nation that could benefit from the trade conflict. This thesis investigates how US and China trade conflict has affected bilateral commerce between Vietnam and OECD countries. Panel data, a gravity model with pooled OLS, and fixed-effects effects is used to estimate the potential for trade between OECD nations and Vietnam. Specially, this thesis examines the impact of US and China trade war from 2018 to 2020 on bilateral trade in goods using data from 1992 to 2020. The main variables used are Distance, GDP per capita, Population, Trade war time, Immigrant stock, and other cofactors such as Tariff rate, the Employment rate in industry, Employment in agriculture, FTAs, Worldwide Governance Indicators, and exchange rate. The main findings are that the main determinants of the bilateral trade between OECD economies and Vietnam are GDP per capita, population, distance and the US- China trade War, immigrant stocks, employment rate in agriculture, the quality of institutions. Specially, the trade war had a negative impact on exports from OECD countries to Vietnam and a positive impact on FDI stock outward from OECD countries to Vietnam during the period considered.
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Abstract
Since China’s economic reform and liberalization in 1979, US- China trade relationship has significantly improved. In terms of monetary value and volume, commerce between US and China is enormous. For instance, American businesses look to China for investment possibilities for their manufacturing facilities, and logistical growth in China makes China a global technological hub. Therefore, US worries about China’s trade policy, such as government-imposed regulations that obstruct trade and investment prospects, even after building such a trading partnership. US also accuses China of violating intellectual property rights, having a patchy record of adhering to WTO rules, and limiting FDI and processes for influencing the value of its currency, the yuan. Since taking office in 2017, President Donald J. Trump vowed to advance a free and fair-trade policy. Therefore, his administration took decisive action against Chinese intellectual property rights regulations that potentially harmed US interests and attempted to lower the bilateral trade deficit. After US placed a tariff on Chinese exports in 2018, the trade conflict erupted, harming not only US but also China; However, other articles suggested that the trade war had a beneficial impact on the rest of the world's commerce. According to Fajgelbaum et al. (2021), the trade war increased world commerce by 3% while opening up new trade possibilities for other countries.
Vietnam is a nation that could benefit from the trade conflict. This thesis investigates how US and China trade conflict has affected bilateral commerce between Vietnam and OECD countries. Panel data, a gravity model with pooled OLS, and fixed-effects effects is used to estimate the potential for trade between OECD nations and Vietnam. Specially, this thesis examines the impact of US and China trade war from 2018 to 2020 on bilateral trade in goods using data from 1992 to 2020. The main variables used are Distance, GDP per capita, Population, Trade war time, Immigrant stock, and other cofactors such as Tariff rate, the Employment rate in industry, Employment in agriculture, FTAs, Worldwide Governance Indicators, and exchange rate. The main findings are that the main determinants of the bilateral trade between OECD economies and Vietnam are GDP per capita, population, distance and the US- China trade War, immigrant stocks, employment rate in agriculture, the quality of institutions. Specially, the trade war had a negative impact on exports from OECD countries to Vietnam and a positive impact on FDI stock outward from OECD countries to Vietnam during the period considered.
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