Riassunto analitico
The "mobility transition" hypothesis, proposed by Zelinsky in 1971, suggests that emigration rates increase and then decrease as societies progress to more advanced stages of development. This theory has often been cited as evidence that immigration to rich nations will increase as low-income countries develop. The following study examines the relationship between development and emigration in 232 countries over a 30-year period. The results, which are robust across several parametric specifications, indicate that emigration from low- and middle-income countries decreases as income levels rise, education improves, and population growth slows. The stage of development of the country of origin plays a role in determining the main destinations of emigration. Emigration to prosperous economies increases from countries with an intermediate level of development, while emigration to less developed economies predominates from developing countries. Policies to promote development in low-income countries can reduce emigration, even to rich economies.
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