Riassunto analitico
In questo lavoro investighiamo un dilemma ampiamente dibattuto in letteratura: la risposta dinamica delle ore lavorate ad uno shock tecnologico usando la metodologia VAR. Stando alla teoria del business cycle, gli shock tecnologici sono gli unici che hanno un effetto permanente sull'economia e in particolare esso dovrebbe avere un effetto positivo sulle ore lavorata. In letteratura, però, sono state presentate più evidenze empiriche che dimostrano il contrario, ed in generale si è visto come la risposta dinamica delle ore dipende dalle caratteristiche del modello, per esempio se le ore lavorate sono prese in differenza o in livelli.
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Abstract
In this thesis we study the effect of a positive technology shock on the hours worked in the US economy, based on quarterly data ranging from 1960 to 2019, using the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) as measure of productivity and identifying the former as the only shock affecting the TFP in the long-run. Several scholars have been analysed this topic reaching different conclusions, depending on whether the hours are considered in levels or first-difference, finding the so called "productivity puzzle". The SVAR approach seems not enough to find a solution to the problem, so other approaches have been considered in the literature to solve it.
In the first part of this thesis we present a SVAR analysis using our data in bivariate and multivariate models, reaching ambiguous results as well. Subsequently, we hypothesize what may be the origin of the puzzle (lack of information over all) and we expand our analysis through an orthonormality test to check our hypothesis. Finally, we solve the puzzle using the other methods, namely FAVAR and CC-SVAR. Moreover, we present the same analysis with another measure of productivity - the labor productivity - to add further evidence to our study.
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