Riassunto analitico
This work addresses the following question: “Does climate change affect international migration? ”. To test this hypothesis, I use panel data comprising 185 countries and 24 years (from 1992 to 2015). The sample is analysed through climatic, economic and socio-political variables. Climatic variables are temperature and rainfall. Their values during 1992-2015 are compared to averages during 1901-1924.Using different econometric specifications and covariates, I find the following main results. First, both temperature and rainfall anomalies have an impact on international migration, while slow changes have no impact on it (for instance, the increase of average temperature). Second, climate change affects emigration from developing countries. Third, the main economic and socio-political variables, which influence emigration are GDP per capita, unemployment rate, employment rate in agriculture, wars and political terror. These results show a direct impact of climatic shocks on international migration, while in the face of slow changes people prefer to adopt adaptation strategies rather than migrating.
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Abstract
This work addresses the following question: “Does climate change affect international migration? ”. To test this hypothesis, I use panel data comprising 185 countries and 24 years (from 1992 to 2015). The sample is analysed through climatic, economic and socio-political variables. Climatic variables are temperature and rainfall. Their values during 1992-2015 are compared to averages during 1901-1924.Using different econometric specifications and covariates, I find the following main results. First, both temperature and rainfall anomalies have an impact on international migration, while slow changes have no impact on it (for instance, the increase of average temperature). Second, climate change affects emigration from developing countries. Third, the main economic and socio-political variables, which influence emigration are GDP per capita, unemployment rate, employment rate in agriculture, wars and political terror. These results show a direct impact of climatic shocks on international migration, while in the face of slow changes people prefer to adopt adaptation strategies rather than migrating.
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