Riassunto analitico
This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on employment in the agri-food sector, in a cross-country perspective. It is based on a dataset comprising 113 countries, with a time series ranging from 1990 to 2022. 16 variables are included in a multiple linear regression equation, using the OLS method. The current literature highlights how mutation in climatic conditions has an impact on rural labour, resulting in a loss of productivity. Indeed, this research focuses specifically on the current climate crisis, which is defined by the combination of both air temperature and precipitation deviation from the preindustrial records. In contrast with the literature, results show how climate change appear not to produce a significant influence on agricultural employment. This is due to a strong mitigation effect, mainly derived from renewables. Indeed, these latter are able to foster occupation, leading towards a more sustainable and resilient supply chain. On the other hand, the negative effects from anomalies in weather conditions (ΔT and ΔP), are absorbed by the greater impact of urbanization. Indeed, this latter factor contributes both in the amplification of the negative impact of anthropogenic climate change over the agricultural sector and the migration of workers towards other industries, with a resulting loss in the occupational rate for the primary sector. Interesting implications arise for sub-Saharan Africa, which appears to have a strong linkage with the agri-food sector, at the same time being abundant of natural resources for sustainable energy production. This latter element enhances the future strategic relevance of this region in the international economic scenario.
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Abstract
This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on employment in the agri-food sector, in a cross-country perspective. It is based on a dataset comprising 113 countries, with a time series ranging from 1990 to 2022. 16 variables are included in a multiple linear regression equation, using the OLS method. The current literature highlights how mutation in climatic conditions has an impact on rural labour, resulting in a loss of productivity. Indeed, this research focuses specifically on the current climate crisis, which is defined by the combination of both air temperature and precipitation deviation from the preindustrial records. In contrast with the literature, results show how climate change appear not to produce a significant influence on agricultural employment. This is due to a strong mitigation effect, mainly derived from renewables. Indeed, these latter are able to foster occupation, leading towards a more sustainable and resilient supply chain. On the other hand, the negative effects from anomalies in weather conditions (ΔT and ΔP), are absorbed by the greater impact of urbanization. Indeed, this latter factor contributes both in the amplification of the negative impact of anthropogenic climate change over the agricultural sector and the migration of workers towards other industries, with a resulting loss in the occupational rate for the primary sector. Interesting implications arise for sub-Saharan Africa, which appears to have a strong linkage with the agri-food sector, at the same time being abundant of natural resources for sustainable energy production. This latter element enhances the future strategic relevance of this region in the international economic scenario.
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